Business Cycle Indicators as of January 26th

New information coming out on Friday, employment in a week and a half. For now:

Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus for January as of 1/26 (blue square), industrial production (red),  personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (1/4/2021 release), NBER, and author’s calculations.